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August 2017 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: September 1, 2017

Contact:   Kristina Cahill
Report On Business® Analyst
ISM®, ROB/Research Manager
Tempe, Arizona
480-752-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: kcahill@instituteforsupplymanagement.org



PMI® at 58.8%

New Orders, Production, Backlog of Orders and Employment Continue Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
Raw Materials Inventories Growing, Customer Inventories Too Low
Prices Increasing at Same Rate

 

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August, and the overall economy grew for the 99th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The August PMI® registered 58.8 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the July reading of 56.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.3 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the July reading of 60.4 percent. The Production Index registered 61 percent, a 0.4 percentage point increase compared to the July reading of 60.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 59.9 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the July reading of 55.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.1 percent, a 1.7 percentage point increase from the July reading of 55.4 percent. The Inventories Index registered 55.5 percent, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from the July reading of 50 percent. The Prices Index registered 62 percent in August, the same reading as July, indicating higher raw materials’ prices for the 18th consecutive month. Comments from the panel reflect expanding business conditions, with new orders, production, employment, backlog and exports all growing in August, as well as supplier deliveries slowing (improving) and inventories increasing during the period. The Customers’ Inventories Index experienced a sharp decline in August compared to July."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 reported growth in August, in the following order: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Three industries reported contraction in August compared to July: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; and Furniture & Related Products.

 

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Steady demand across businesses." (Chemical Products)
  • "Demand for light construction equipment continues strong; usually at this time of year, demand slackens." (Machinery)
  • "Overall very steady; starting to pick up as expected." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Overall optimism about the market, both for 2017 and 2018." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "Business has strengthened over the summer, beyond [the] same period last year." (Paper Products)
  • "Busy production month for August." (Textile Mills)
  • "Sales remain strong month-to-month. (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Slightly higher order intake." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • "Order board is very strong right now.&quot (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Business is steady and strong.&quot (Furniture & Related Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
August 2017


Index
Series
Index
Aug
Series
Index
Jul
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI® 58.8 56.3 +2.5 Growing Faster 12
New Orders 60.3 60.4 -0.1 Growing Slower 12
Production 61.0 60.6 +0.4 Growing Faster 12
Employment 59.9 55.2 +4.7 Growing Faster 11
Supplier Deliveries 57.1 55.4 +1.7 Slowing Faster 16
Inventories 55.5 50.0 +5.5 Growing From Unchanged 1
Customers' Inventories 41.0 49.0 -8.0 Too Low Slower 2
Prices 62.0 62.0 0 Increasing Same 18
Backlog of Orders 57.5 55.0 +2.5 Growing Faster 7
New Export Orders 55.5 57.5 -2.0 Growing Slower 18
Imports 54.5 56.0 -1.5 Growing Slower 7
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 99
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 12

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

 

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (10); Caustic Soda (2); Copper; Corrugate (11); Corrugated Boxes (6); Electric Components (3); Food Ingredients; Lumber (2); Mechanical Components; Memory — Computer (2); Resins; Scrap — All Types; Solvents; Steel; Steel — Hot Rolled (9); and Titanium Dioxide (2).

 

Commodities Down in Price

Benzene Products.

 

Commodities in Short Supply

Capacitors (2); Electric Components (3); Electronic Components (6); Integrated Circuits (2); Memory — Computer (2); and Methacrylates.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.

 


August 2017 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


PMI®

Manufacturing expanded in August as the PMI® registered 58.8 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the July reading of 56.3 percent. This indicates growth in manufacturing for the 12th consecutive month and is the highest reading since April 2011, when the index registered 59.1 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI® above 43.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the August PMI® indicates growth for the 99th consecutive month in the overall economy and the 12th straight month of growth in the manufacturing sector. Fiore says, "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI® for January through August (56.7 percent) corresponds to a 4.2 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI® for August (58.8 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.9 percent increase in real GDP annually."

 

THE LAST 12 MONTHS
MonthPMI® MonthPMI®
Aug 2017  58.8   Feb 2017  57.7
Jul 2017  56.3   Jan 2017  56.0
Jun 2017  57.8   Dec 2016  54.5
May 2017  54.9   Nov 2016  53.5
Apr 2017  54.8   Oct 2016  52.0
Mar 2017  57.2   Sep 2016  51.7
Average for 2017 – 56.7
Average for 12 months – 55.4
High – 58.8
Low – 51.7


New Orders

ISM®'s New Orders Index registered 60.3 percent in August, which is a decrease of 0.1 percentage point when compared to the 60.4 percent reported for July, indicating growth in new orders for the 12th consecutive month. "Order input continues at a strong pace consistent with the last four months of order activity," says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Twelve of 18 industries reported growth in new orders in August, listed in the following order: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. Four industries — Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — reported a decrease in new orders in August compared to July.

New
Orders
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Aug 2017 33 52 15 +18 60.3
Jul 2017 33 55 12 +21 60.4
Jun 2017 38 54 8 +30 63.5
May 2017 34 57 9 +25 59.5


Production

ISM®'s Production Index registered 61 percent in August, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage point when compared to the 60.6 percent reported for July, indicating growth in production for the 12th consecutive month. "Production remains at strong growth levels in most industries in spite of supplier delivery constraints," says Fiore. An index above 51.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of August — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Four industries — Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products, and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components — reported a decrease in production in August compared to July.


Production
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Aug 2017 32 56 12 +20 61.0
Jul 2017 33 54 13 +20 60.6
Jun 2017 34 59 7 +27 62.4
May 2017 31 57 12 +19 57.1


Employment

ISM®'s Employment Index registered 59.9 percent in August, an increase of 4.7 percentage points when compared to the July reading of 55.2 percent. This indicates growth in employment in August for the 11th consecutive month. Employment levels have been expanding since October 2016 and reached the highest level of expansion since June 2011, when the index registered 61.3 percent. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 13 reporting employment growth in August — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The two industries reporting a decrease in employment in August are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Primary Metals.


Employment
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Aug 2017 26 67 7 +19 59.9
Jul 2017 24 66 10 +14 55.2
Jun 2017 28 61 11 +17 57.2
May 2017 23 65 12 +11 53.5


Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in August, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.1 percent. This is 1.7 percentage points higher than the 55.4 percent reported for July. This is the 16th straight month of slowing supplier deliveries, and the index achieved its highest level since December 2014, when it registered 58.3 percent. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 11 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in August — listed in order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. The one industry, Miscellaneous Manufacturing, reported faster deliveries in August compared to July. Six industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in August compared to July.

Supplier
Deliveries
%
Slower
%
Same
%
Faster

Net

Index
Aug 2017 18 78 4 +14 57.1
Jul 2017 19 74 7 +12 55.4
Jun 2017 17 78 5 +12 57.0
May 2017 13 82 5 +8 53.1


Inventories*

The Inventories Index registered 55.5 percent in August, which is an increase of 5.5 percentage points when compared to the 50 percent reported for July, indicating raw materials inventories grew in August compared to July. The index reached its highest level since September 2010, when it registered 56 percent. An Inventories Index greater than 42.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The 11 industries reporting higher inventories in August — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Machinery. The five industries reporting lower inventories in August are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Paper Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.


Inventories
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Aug 2017 22 67 11 +11 55.5
Jul 2017 19 62 19 0 50.0
Jun 2017 16 66 18 -2 49.0
May 2017 18 67 15 +3 51.5


Customers' Inventories*

ISM®'s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 41 percent in August, which is 8 percentage points lower than the 49 percent reported for July, indicating that customers’ inventory levels are considered too low in August. The index is at its lowest level since May 2011, when it registered 39.5 percent.

The only manufacturing industry reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during the month of August is Furniture & Related Products. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during August — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in customer inventories in August compared to July.


Customers'
Inventories
%
Reporting
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low

Net

Index
Aug 2017 55 5 72 23 -18 41.0
Jul 2017 58 10 78 12 -2 49.0
Jun 2017 52 16 69 15 +1 50.5
May 2017 56 14 71 15 -1 49.5


Prices*

The ISM® Prices Index registered 62 percent in August, the same rate of growth as July, indicating an increase in raw materials prices for the 18th consecutive month. In August, 30 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 6 percent reported paying lower prices, and 64 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in July. Fiore comments, “The Business Survey Committee noted price increases in many areas, including metals (steel and aluminum); food ingredients; electronic components; lumber and wood products; basic chemicals; and plastics.” A Prices Index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 16 that reported paying increased prices for raw materials in August — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment. No industries reported paying lower prices in August compared to July.


Prices
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Aug 2017 30 64 6 +24 62.0
Jul 2017 33 58 9 +24 62.0
Jun 2017 27 56 17 +10 55.0
May 2017 30 61 9 +21 60.5


Backlog of Orders*

ISM®'s Backlog of Orders Index registered 57.5 percent in August, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the 55 percent reported for July, indicating growth in order backlogs for the seventh consecutive month. Of the 90 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 28 percent reported greater backlogs, 13 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 59 percent reported no change from July.

The 12 industries reporting growth in order backlogs in August — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs during August are: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Backlog of
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Greater
%
Same
%
Less

Net

Index
Aug 2017 90 28 59 13 +15 57.5
Jul 2017 88 25 60 15 +10 55.0
Jun 2017 91 29 56 15 +14 57.0
May 2017 90 23 64 13 +10 55.0


New Export Orders*

ISM®'s New Export Orders Index registered 55.5 percent in August, a decrease of 2 percentage points when compared to the 57.5 percent reported for July, indicating growth in new export orders for the 18th consecutive month but at a slower rate compared to July.

The eight industries reporting growth in new export orders in August — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Two industries, Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Primary Metals, reported a decrease in new export orders. Eight industries reported no change in exports in August compared to July.

New Export
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Aug 2017 81 16 79 5 +11 55.5
Jul 2017 79 20 75 5 +15 57.5
Jun 2017 80 22 75 3 +19 59.5
May 2017 77 20 75 5 +15 57.5


Imports*

ISM®'s Imports Index registered 54.5 percent in August, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points when compared to the 56 percent reported for July, indicating that imports are growing in August for the seventh consecutive month but at a slower rate compared to July.

The eight industries reporting growth in imports during the month of August — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Four industries — Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components — reported a decrease in imports during August compared to July.


Imports
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Aug 2017 83 16 77 7 +9 54.5
Jul 2017 82 17 78 5 +12 56.0
Jun 2017 84 14 80 6 +8 54.0
May 2017 81 12 83 5 +7 53.5

 

* The Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.


Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures declined in August to 143 days from 146 days. Average lead time for Production Materials increased by 1 day to 61 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased by 1 day to 36 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Aug 2017 19 7 12 17 25 20 143
Jul 2017 19 8 9 18 25 21 146
Jun 2017 20 7 11 17 23 22 146
May 2017 19 8 12 15 24 22 146
 

Production
Materials
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Aug 2017 12 38 24 18 6 2 61
Jul 2017 12 35 27 18 7 1 60
Jun 2017 13 39 20 20 7 1 59
May 2017 12 37 23 20 6 2 62
 

MRO
Supplies
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Aug 2017 31 42 18 6 3 0 36
Jul 2017 32 43 14 9 2 0 35
Jun 2017 34 42 14 7 3 0 34
May 2017 34 39 17 7 3 0 35


About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2017.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

 

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted), and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI® above 43.3 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 43.3 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 43.3 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

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About Institute for Supply Management®

Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the newly launched ISM Mastery Model®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring the September 2017 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, October 2, 2017.

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