ISM - Media Release: September 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
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September 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

FOR RELEASE: October 3, 2016

Contact:   Kristina Cahill
Report On Business® Analyst
ISM®, ROB/Research Manager
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: kcahill@instituteforsupplymanagement.org





DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2016.

PMI® at 51.5%

New Orders and Production Growing
Employment and Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September following one month of contraction in August, and the overall economy grew for the 88th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The September PMI® registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the August reading of 49.4 percent. The New Orders Index registered 55.1 percent, an increase of 6 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. The Production Index registered 52.8 percent, 3.2 percentage points higher than the August reading of 49.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 49.7 percent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the August reading of 48.3 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the August reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 53 percent in September, the same reading as in August, indicating higher raw materials prices for the seventh consecutive month. Manufacturing expanded in September following one month of contraction in August, with nine of the 18 industries reporting an increase in new orders in September (up from six in August), and 10 of the 18 industries reporting an increase in production in September (up from eight in August)."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, seven are reporting growth in September in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Paper Products. The 11 industries reporting contraction in September — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Domestic and international sales moving up slightly." (Chemical Products)
  • "Negotiating prices down on all metals." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Business is still strong, but we are seeing some pushouts from certain consumer market products." (Primary Metals)
  • "Sales on the increase and positive outlook for the remainder of 2016." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Good growing conditions for this year’s corn and soybean crop has the protein market anticipating large supplies and lower cost of goods for 2017." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "General business conditions are slowly improving with increased sales and sales leads." (Machinery)
  • "Furniture sales are increasing." (Furniture & Related Products)
  • "Some concern about fallout from the Hanjin Shipping bankruptcy. Spending time tracking containers — alternatives. Also, predicated on the impact to worldwide rates, there is some concern around both capacity and ocean rates in the near — to midterm future." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Demand increase after previous lackluster month. Some pre-buying activity underway by customers in advance of expected price increases." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Oil prices have increased with respect to the first quarter but they remain at low levels affecting our revenue and purchasing power." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
September 2016


Index
Series
Index
Sep
Series
Index
Aug
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI® 51.5 49.4 +2.1 Growing From Contracting 1
New Orders 55.1 49.1 +6.0 Growing From Contracting 1
Production 52.8 49.6 +3.2 Growing From Contracting 1
Employment 49.7 48.3 +1.4 Contracting Slower 3
Supplier Deliveries 50.3 50.9 -0.6 Slowing Slower 5
Inventories 49.5 49.0 +0.5 Contracting Slower 15
Customers' Inventories 53.0 49.5 +3.5 Too High From Too Low 1
Prices 53.0 53.0 0.0 Increasing Same 7
Backlog of Orders 49.5 45.5 +4.0 Contracting Slower 3
New Export Orders 52.0 52.5 -0.5 Growing Slower 7
Imports 49.0 47.0 +2.0 Contracting Slower 2
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 88
Manufacturing Sector Growing From Contracting 1

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Caustic Soda (2); Garlic — Dehydrated; HDPE; Petroleum; Plastic Resins (2); Polyethylene; Polypropylene; Propylene (2); Stainless Steel (6); Steel* (9); and Titanium Dioxide (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Copper; Corn (3); Electric Components; Scrap Steel (2); Steel* (3); Steel — Cold Rolled (2); and Steel — Hot Rolled (2).

Commodities in Short Supply

Electronic Components.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Reported as both up and down in price.


SEPTEMBER 2016 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


PMI®

Manufacturing expanded in September as the PMI® registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the August reading of 49.4 percent, indicating growth in manufacturing following one month of contraction. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI® above 43.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September PMI® indicates growth for the 88th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates growth in the manufacturing sector following one month of contraction. Holcomb stated, "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI® for January through September (50.9 percent) corresponds to a 2.4 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI® for September (51.5 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.6 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS
MonthPMI®MonthPMI®
Sep 2016 51.5 Mar 2016 51.8
Aug 2016 49.4 Feb 2016 49.5
Jul 2016 52.6 Jan 2016 48.2
Jun 2016 53.2 Dec 2015 48.0
May 2016 51.3 Nov 2015 48.4
Apr 2016 50.8 Oct 2015 49.4
Average for 12 months – 50.3
High – 53.2
Low – 48.0


New Orders

ISM®’s New Orders Index registered 55.1 percent in September, which is an increase of 6 percentage points when compared to the 49.1 percent reported for August, indicating growth in new orders following one month of contraction. A New Orders Index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The nine industries reporting growth in new orders in September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; and Machinery. The six industries reporting a decrease in new orders during September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Textile Mills.

New
Orders
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Sep 2016 27 53 20 +7 55.1
Aug 2016 22 52 26 -4 49.1
Jul 2016 27 58 15 +12 56.9
Jun 2016 31 51 18 +13 57.0


Production

ISM®’s Production Index registered 52.8 percent in September, which is an increase of 3.2 percentage points when compared to the 49.6 percent reported for August, indicating growth in production in September following one month of contraction. An index above 51.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Paper Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in production during September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Textile Mills.


Production
%
Better
%
Same
%
Worse

Net

Index
Sep 2016 24 56 20 +4 52.8
Aug 2016 19 59 22 -3 49.6
Jul 2016 25 58 17 +8 55.4
Jun 2016 28 55 17 +11 54.7


Employment

ISM®’s Employment Index registered 49.7 percent in September, an increase of 1.4 percentage points when compared to the August reading of 48.3 percent, indicating contraction in employment in September for the third consecutive month. An Employment Index above 50.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the seven industries reporting employment growth in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in employment in September — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Printing & Related Support Activities.


Employment
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2016 17 63 20 -3 49.7
Aug 2016 16 65 19 -3 48.3
Jul 2016 17 68 15 +2 49.4
Jun 2016 22 58 20 +2 50.4


Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in September as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.3 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than the 50.9 percent reported for August. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The seven industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in September are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in September compared to August.

Supplier
Deliveries
%
Slower
%
Same
%
Faster

Net

Index
Sep 2016 8 85 7 +1 50.3
Aug 2016 8 86 6 +2 50.9
Jul 2016 10 85 5 +5 51.8
Jun 2016 12 84 4 +8 55.4


Inventories*

The Inventories Index registered 49.5 percent in September, which is an increase of 0.5 percentage point when compared to the 49 percent reported for August, indicating raw materials inventories are contracting in September for the 15th consecutive month. An Inventories Index greater than 42.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The eight industries reporting higher inventories in September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The nine industries reporting lower inventories in September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products.


Inventories
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2016 16 67 17 -1 49.5
Aug 2016 18 62 20 -2 49.0
Jul 2016 19 61 20 -1 49.5
Jun 2016 19 59 22 -3 48.5


Customers' Inventories*

ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 53 percent in September, which is 3.5 percentage points higher than the 49.5 percent reported in August, indicating that customers’ inventory levels are considered too high in September.

The eight manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during the month of September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The three industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Six industries reported no change in customer inventories in September compared to August.

Customers'
Inventories
%
Reporting
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low

Net

Index
Sep 2016 58 17 72 11 +6 53.0
Aug 2016 54 16 67 17 -1 49.5
Jul 2016 59 13 76 11 +2 51.0
Jun 2016 57 16 70 14 +2 51.0


Prices*

The ISM® Prices Index registered 53 percent in September, the same reading as reported for August, indicating an increase in raw materials prices for the seventh consecutive month. In September, 20 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 14 percent reported paying lower prices, and 66 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in August. A Prices Index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 10 industries that reported paying increased prices for its raw materials in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The four industries reporting paying lower prices during the month of September are: Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.


Prices
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2016 20 66 14 +6 53.0
Aug 2016 19 68 13 +6 53.0
Jul 2016 22 66 12 +10 55.0
Jun 2016 27 67 6 +21 60.5


Backlog of Orders*

ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 49.5 percent in September, an increase of 4 percentage points when compared to the August reading of 45.5 percent, indicating contraction in order backlogs for the third consecutive month. Of the 87 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 19 percent reported greater backlogs, 20 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 61 percent reported no change from August.

The seven industries reporting growth in order backlogs in September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs during September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Paper Products.

Backlog of
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Greater
%
Same
%
Less

Net

Index
Sep 2016 87 19 61 20 -1 49.5
Aug 2016 88 18 55 27 -9 45.5
Jul 2016 86 16 64 20 -4 48.0
Jun 2016 89 24 57 19 +5 52.5


New Export Orders*

ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 52 percent in September, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point when compared to the 52.5 percent reported for August, indicating growth in new export orders for the seventh consecutive month.

The seven industries reporting growth in new export orders in September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting a decrease in new export orders during September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

New Export
Orders
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2016 76 15 74 11 +4 52.0
Aug 2016 78 16 73 11 +5 52.5
Jul 2016 76 14 77 9 +5 52.5
Jun 2016 79 14 79 7 +7 53.5


Imports*

ISM®’s Imports Index registered 49 percent in September, which is 2 percentage points above the August reading of 47 percent. This month’s reading indicates contraction in imports for the second consecutive month.

The four industries reporting growth in imports during the month of September are: Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in imports during September — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.


Imports
%
Reporting
%
Higher
%
Same
%
Lower

Net

Index
Sep 2016 81 12 74 14 -2 49.0
Aug 2016 83 8 78 14 -6 47.0
Jul 2016 80 14 76 10 +4 52.0
Jun 2016 84 11 82 7 +4 52.0

* The Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.


Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased in September by 3 days to 132 days. Average lead time for Production Materials remained the same at 60 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased by 2 days to 31 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Sep 2016 18 12 9 16 30 15 132
Aug 2016 22 6 13 19 24 16 129
Jul 2016 20 8 14 18 22 18 132
Jun 2016 23 7 11 15 28 16 131

Production
Materials
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Sep 2016 15 35 25 16 7 2 60
Aug 2016 15 38 22 15 8 2 60
Jul 2016 12 37 26 15 7 3 64
Jun 2016 15 38 23 15 7 2 59

MRO
Supplies
Hand-
to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days
Sep 2016 38 35 18 9 0 0 31
Aug 2016 40 39 13 8 0 0 29
Jul 2016 38 40 15 5 2 0 31
Jun 2016 39 37 17 6 1 0 30


About This Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted), and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI® above 43.2 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 43.2 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 43.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

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About Institute for Supply Management®

Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 48,000 members around the world manage about $1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the newly launched ISM Mastery Model. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring the October 2016 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Tuesday, November 1, 2016.

*Unless the NYSE is closed.



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