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FOR RELEASE: January 7, 2019

Contact:   Kristina Cahill
Report On Business® Analyst
ISM®, ROB/Research Manager
Tempe, Arizona
480-752-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: kcahill@instituteforsupplymanagement.org




December 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 57.6%


Business Activity Index at 59.9%

New Orders Index at 62.7%

Employment Index at 56.3%


(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 107th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 57.6 percent, which is 3.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of 60.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 59.9 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the November reading of 65.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 113th consecutive month, at a slower rate in December. The New Orders Index registered 62.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 62.5 percent in November. The Employment Index decreased 2.1 percentage points in December to 56.3 percent from the November reading of 58.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 6.7 percentage points from the November reading of 64.3 percent to 57.6 percent, indicating that prices increased in December for the 34th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate cooled off in December. Respondents indicate that there still is concern about tariffs, despite the hold on increases by the U.S. and China. Also, comments reflect that capacity constraints have lessened; however, employment-resource challenges remain. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions.”

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Information; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Construction; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in December is Mining.

What respondents are saying
  • “New residential home sales have slowed significantly. Tariff delay has slowed material cost increases, but all indications are that January will bring price increases.” (Construction)
  • “Economy still chugging along, despite the rise in interest rates and relentless political claptrap. Mid-winter [activity] appears to be helping a variety of sectors, including agriculture and construction.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Overall, our year-end outlook is positive. We are already receiving converted RFPs to orders for 2019. Based on the uncertainty of the tariffs, we have advised our clients to make purchases early in first quarter 2019, if possible, to save money. There is concern in our industry regarding the full year due to tariffs, unless a deal can be reconciled with China. We expect lower profit margins and reduced sales for 2019 until our suppliers can source product from other countries, which may not be until late [in the year].” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Business is still on an uptrend. Receiving more inquiries for training going into new year.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Steady demand and supply. Finding qualified employees is a challenge.” (Public Administration)
  • “Business is exceeding expectations. 2019 should equate or exceed 2018.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • “Business is very good. Strong demand and pipeline.” (Retail Trade)
  • “The end of the year continues to be busy, with high load factor.” (Transportation & Warehousing)
  • “Overall, the industry looks to have a pullback year in demand for 2019. Several factors are contributing to this: stock market retraction, tariffs, trade dispute with China, higher mortgage rates, higher home prices, stagnant wage growth, labor shortages and higher material costs.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
DECEMBER 2018

 Non-ManufacturingManufacturing
IndexSeries Index DecSeries Index NovPercent Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend** (Months)Series Index DecSeries Index NovPercent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 57.6 60.7 -3.1 Growing Slower 107 54.1 59.3 -5.2
Business Activity/ Production 59.9 65.2 -5.3 Growing Slower 113 54.3 60.6 -6.3
New Orders 62.7 62.5 +0.2 Growing Faster 95 51.1 62.1 -11.0
Employment 56.3 58.4 -2.1 Growing Slower 58 56.2 58.4 -2.2
Supplier Deliveries 51.5 56.5 -5.0 Slowing Slower 36 57.5 62.5 -5.0
Inventories 51.5 57.5 -6.0 Growing Slower 11 51.2 52.9 -1.7
Prices 57.6 64.3 -6.7 Increasing Slower 34 54.9 60.7 -5.8
Backlog of Orders 50.5 55.5 -5.0 Growing Slower 12 50.0 56.4 -6.4
New Export Orders 59.5 57.5 +2.0 Growing Faster 23 52.8 52.2 +0.6
Imports 53.5 54.5 -1.0 Growing Slower 10 52.7 53.6 -0.9
Inventory Sentiment 59.0 60.0 -1.0 Too High Slower 259 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41.7 41.5 +0.2
Overall Economy Growing Slower 112
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 107
Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities reported up/down in price and in short supply


Commodities Up in Price

Construction Subcontractors; Copper Products; Electrical Components; Freight (4); Fuel (2)*; Labor (3); Labor — Construction (2); Lettuce; Oil-Based Products; Romaine Lettuce; and Steel Products* (15).

 

Commodities Down in Price

Cheese (2); Computers and Peripherals; Diesel; Fuel* (2); Gasoline (2); Lumber Products (2); and Steel Products*.

 

Commodities in Short Supply

Construction Subcontractors (12); Labor (3); Labor — Construction (33); Labor — Temporary (4); and Medical Supplies (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Reported as both up and down in price.


DECEMBER 2018 Non-Manufacturing Index Summaries


In December, the NMI® registered 57.6 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than the 60.7 percent registered in November, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 107th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI® above 49 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December NMI® indicates growth for the 112th consecutive month in the overall economy and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 107th consecutive month. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the NMI® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI® for December (57.6 percent) corresponds to a 3.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

NMI® History

MonthNMI®
Dec 2018 57.6
Nov 2018 60.7
Oct 2018 60.3
Sep 2018 61.6
Aug 2018 58.5
Jul 2018 55.7
MonthNMI®
Jun 2018 59.1
May 2018 58.6
Apr 2018 56.8
Mar 2018 58.8
Feb 2018 59.5
Jan 2018 59.9
58.9
61.6
55.7

Business Activity

ISM®’s Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent in December, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from the November reading of 65.2 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 113th consecutive month. Eleven industries reported increased business activity. Comments from respondents include: “Higher retail activity” and “End of year typically generates a flurry of activity.”

The 11 industries reporting growth of business activity in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four industries reporting a decrease in December are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Wholesale Trade.

Business Activity% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Dec 2018 32 50 18 59.9
Nov 2018 40 49 11 65.2
Oct 2018 38 47 15 62.5
Sep 2018 40 52 8 65.2

ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 62.7 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the November reading of 62.5 percent. New orders grew in December for the 95th consecutive month, at a faster rate compared with November. Comments from respondents include: “End of budget year spend” and “Due to the potential impact of tariffs, some clients are choosing to procure what they need in early 2019 now.”

The 13 industries reporting growth of new orders in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in December is Mining.

New Orders% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Dec 2018 35 50 15 62.7
Nov 2018 36 52 12 62.5
Oct 2018 35 50 15 61.5
Sep 2018 37 54 9 61.6

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 58th consecutive month. ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 56.3 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the November reading of 58.4 percent. Thirteen industries reported increased employment, and four industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: “Lower unemployment makes higher-paying positions elsewhere more attractive” and “Adding staff to address growing orders and improve customer service.”

The 13 industries reporting an increase in employment in December — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Finance & Insurance. The four industries reporting a reduction in employment in December are: Construction; Mining; Utilities; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

Employment% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Dec 2018 26 60 14 56.3
Nov 2018 22 69 9 58.4
Oct 2018 31 56 13 59.7
Sep 2018 31 60 9 62.4

Supplier Deliveries

Supplier deliveries were slower in December for the 36th consecutive month. The index registered 51.5 percent, which is 5 percentage points lower than the 56.5 percent registered in November. This indicates that deliveries are slowing at a slower rate in December. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Season peak subsiding, and vendors are beginning to work down the backlog” and “Increase in available truck capacity.”

The eight industries reporting slower deliveries in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The six industries reporting faster deliveries in December — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Other Services.

Supplier Deliveries% Slower% Same% FasterIndex
Dec 2018 13 77 10 51.5
Nov 2018 15 83 2 56.5
Oct 2018 17 81 2 57.5
Sep 2018 16 82 2 57.0

Inventories*

ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in December for the 11th consecutive month, registering 51.5 percent, which is 6 percentage points lower than the 57.5 that was reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 29 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Reducing inventory to be more in line with sales” and “Deleting surplus inventory before year’s end.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in December — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Public Administration; Utilities; and Finance & Insurance. The eight industries reporting a decrease in inventories — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Mining; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

Inventories% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Dec 2018 20 63 17 51.5
Nov 2018 26 63 11 57.5
Oct 2018 26 60 14 56.0
Sep 2018 24 61 15 54.5

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for materials and services increased in December for the 34th consecutive month. ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index registered 57.6 percent, 6.7 percentage points lower than the 64.3 percent reported in November. Eighteen percent of respondents reported higher prices, 74 percent indicated no change in prices paid, and 8 percent of respondents reported lower prices.

Ten non-manufacturing industries reporting an increase in prices paid during the month of December, listed in the following order are: Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Six industries reported no change in prices.

Prices% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Dec 2018 18 74 8 57.6
Nov 2018 28 67 5 64.3
Oct 2018 29 63 8 61.7
Sep 2018 28 68 4 64.2
NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders

ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders grew in December. The index registered 50.5 percent, which is 5 percentage points lower than the 55.5 percent reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 37 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The seven industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in December — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. The seven industries that reported a decrease in backlogs — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Information; Utilities; and Mining.

Backlog of Orders% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Dec 2018 20 61 19 50.5
Nov 2018 22 67 11 55.5
Oct 2018 19 69 12 53.5
Sep 2018 24 69 7 58.5

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based personnel grew for the 23rd consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 59.5 percent in December which is 2 percentage points higher than the 57.5 percent that was reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 61 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in December — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; and Construction. The two industries reporting a decrease in exports for the month of December are: Mining; and Other Services. Six industries reported no change in December.

New Export Orders% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Dec 2018 22 75 3 59.5
Nov 2018 19 77 4 57.5
Oct 2018 29 64 7 61.0
Sep 2018 25 72 3 61.0

The Imports Index reading of 53.5 percent is 1 percentage point lower than the 54.5 percent reported in November. Fifty-two percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The eight industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of December — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in imports in the month of December are: Other Services; Construction; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting. Six industries reported no change in December.

Imports% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Dec 2018 15 77 8 53.5
Nov 2018 16 77 7 54.5
Oct 2018 13 76 11 51.0
Sep 2018 15 80 5 55.0
*The Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM® Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in December registered 59 percent, which is 1 percentage point lower than the 60 percent that was reported in November. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high. In December, 22 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 4 percent of the respondents said their inventories were too low, and 74 percent said their inventories were about right.

The 12 industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too high in December — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Information; Construction; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Other Services. The only industry reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in December is Transportation & Warehousing.

Inventory Sentiment

Inventory Sentiment% Too High% About Right% Too LowIndex
Dec 2018 22 74 4 59.0
Nov 2018 24 72 4 60.0
Oct 2018 26 72 2 62.0
Sep 2018 23 73 4 59.5

About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of December 2018.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI® (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

An NMI® above 49 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management®

IInstitute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring January 2019 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019.

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