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FOR RELEASE: March 5, 2019

Contact:   Kristina Cahill
Report On Business® Analyst
ISM®, ROB/Research Manager
Tempe, Arizona
480-752-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: kcahill@instituteforsupplymanagement.org

 


February 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 59.7%


Business Activity Index at 64.7%

New Orders Index at 65.2%

Employment Index at 55.2%


(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February for the 109th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 59.7 percent, which is 3 percentage points higher than the January reading of 56.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 64.7 percent, 5 percentage points higher than the January reading of 59.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 115th consecutive month, at a faster rate in February. The New Orders Index registered 65.2 percent, 7.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 57.7 percent in January. The Employment Index decreased 2.6 percentage points in February to 55.2 percent from the January reading of 57.8 percent. The Prices Index decreased 5 percentage points from the January reading of 59.4 percent to 54.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in February for the 21st consecutive month. According to the NMI®, all 18 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate rebounded in February after cooling off in January. Respondents are concerned about the uncertainty of tariffs, capacity constraints and employment resources; however, they remain mostly optimistic about overall business conditions and the economy.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 18 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in February — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Educational Services; Utilities; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Retail Trade.

What respondents are saying
  • “We are anxiously awaiting decisions in the next couple of weeks on the fate of the proposed tariffs on China. High Chinese commitments to agriculture output will put cost pressure on food and restaurant margins.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “The beginning of the year is generally our slowest time of year in the health-care industry. [Activity] will gradually pick up until April, then be steady until the fourth quarter, when there will be a large increase.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Still strong in all areas, due mostly to commercial construction activity.” (Construction)
  • “The local economy is doing well. Business lending remains competitive. The rise in interest rates have helped boost our net interest margin.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Business continues to stay steady, with little drop off. However, we are more concerned about tariffs in the short term, since there seems to be no agreement. However, we do believe it will be a short-lived issue. In the long term, tariffs will force our suppliers to source elsewhere, which will levy more competition from manufacturers in other low- or non-tariffed countries and even in the U.S. Ultimately, the tariffs will force an improvement to the overall supply chain and better mitigate supply risk in our industry.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Increased activity level over the end of 2018.” (Mining)
  • “Business continues [to] improve, and we expect it to continue through 2019. Domestic trucking availability is improving.” (Other Services)
  • “Confidence is returning in the marketplace, but tariff surcharges are still in place.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Tariffs continue to have an impact on our business. The contractor labor shortage continues to be the biggest supply challenge for our company and others in our region and industry.” (Utilities)
  • “Seeing increases in business activity. Projecting strong sales for the month, stable prices and generally good fill rates from suppliers. Some spot outages, mostly due to capacity and planning limitations or shortfalls.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
FEBRUARY 2019

 Non-ManufacturingManufacturing
IndexSeries Index FebSeries Index JanPercent Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend** (Months)Series Index FebSeries Index JanPercent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 59.7 56.7 +3.0 Growing Faster 109 54.2 56.6 -2.4
Business Activity/ Production 64.7 59.7 +5.0 Growing Faster 115 54.8 60.5 -5.7
New Orders 65.2 57.7 +7.5 Growing Faster 115 55.5 58.2 -2.7
Employment 55.2 57.8 -2.6 Growing Slower 60 52.3 55.5 -3.2
Supplier Deliveries 53.5 51.5 +2.0 Slowing Faster 38 54.9 56.2 -1.3
Inventories 51.0 49.0 +2.0 Growing From Contracting 1 53.4 52.8 +0.6
Prices 54.4 59.4 -5.0 Increasing Slower 21 49.4 49.6 -0.2
Backlog of Orders 55.5 52.5 +3.0 Growing Faster 14 52.3 50.3 +2.0
New Export Orders 55.0 50.5 +4.5 Growing Faster 25 52.8 51.8 +1.0
Imports 48.5 52.0 -3.5 Contracting From Growing 1 55.3 53.8 +1.5
Inventory Sentiment 59.0 60.5 -1.5 Too High Slower 260 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.0 42.8 -3.8
Overall Economy Growing Faster 115
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 109
Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities reported up/down in price and in short supply


Commodities Up in Price

Beef (2); Copper Wire; Labor (5); Paper; Paper Products; and Steel Products (17).

 

Commodities Down in Price

Cheese; Diesel (3); and Fuel (4).

 

Commodities in Short Supply

Construction Subcontractors (14); Labor (5); Labor — Construction (35); Labor — Temporary (6); and Medical Supplies (4).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.


FEBRUARY 2019 Non-Manufacturing Index Summaries


In February, the NMI® registered 59.7 percent, 3 percentage points lower than the 56.7 percent registered in January, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 109th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI® above 48.6 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February NMI® indicates growth for the 115th consecutive month in the overall economy and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 109th consecutive month. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the NMI® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI® for February (59.7 percent) corresponds to a 3.9-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

NMI® History

MonthNMI®
Feb 2019 59.7
Jan 2019 56.7
Dec 2018 58.0
Nov 2018 60.4
Oct 2018 60.0
Sep 2018 60.8
MonthNMI®
Aug 2018 58.8
Jul 2018 56.7
Jun 2018 58.7
May 2018 58.9
Apr 2018 57.2
Mar 2018 58.7
58.7
60.8
56.7

Business Activity

ISM®’s Business Activity Index registered 64.7 percent in February, an increase of 5 percentage points from the January reading of 59.7 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 115th consecutive month. Sixteen industries reported increased business activity. Comments from respondents include: “Demand for medical supplies, equipment, services, professional services and construction are all up” and “Activity has picked up after a very sluggish first half of last month.”

The 16 industries reporting growth of business activity in February — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Other Services; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Construction. The only industry reporting a decrease in February is Retail Trade.

Business Activity% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Feb 2019 39 51 10 64.7
Jan 2019 33 43 24 59.7
Dec 2018 32 50 18 61.2
Nov 2018 40 49 11 64.3

ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 65.2 percent, an increase of 7.5 percentage points from the January reading of 57.7 percent. New orders grew in February for the 115th consecutive month, at a substantially faster rate compared with January. Comments from respondents include: “Increased activity in the oil and gas sector leading to trickle-down effect for service companies” and “Expanding business with our current customers.”

The 16 industries reporting growth of new orders in February — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Utilities; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; and Retail Trade. No industry reported contraction in February.

New Orders% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Feb 2019 38 52 10 65.2
Jan 2019 28 51 21 57.7
Dec 2018 35 50 15 62.7
Nov 2018 36 52 12 62.7

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February for the 60th consecutive month. ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 55.2 percent, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the January reading of 57.8 percent. Eleven industries reported increased employment, and four industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: “Lower employment makes higher-paying positions elsewhere more attractive” and “It is more difficult to find well-qualified workers. Our backlog of unfilled jobs is stubbornly the same despite the efforts of the HR department.”

The 11 industries reporting an increase in employment in February — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Mining; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries reporting a reduction in employment in February are: Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Retail Trade; and Public Administration.

Employment% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Feb 2019 21 66 13 55.2
Jan 2019 22 65 13 57.8
Dec 2018 26 60 14 56.6
Nov 2018 22 69 9 58.0

Supplier Deliveries

Supplier deliveries were slower in February for the 38th consecutive month. The index registered 53.5 percent, which is 2 percentage points higher than the 51.5 percent registered in January. This indicates that deliveries are slowing at faster rate in February as compared with January. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Manufacturing back orders are slowing deliveries” and “General increase in U.S. economic activity is straining manufacturers already running at full capacity.”

The seven industries reporting slower deliveries in February — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The three industries reporting faster deliveries in February are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; and Accommodation & Food Services. Eight industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in February as compared to January.

Supplier Deliveries% Slower% Same% FasterIndex
Feb 2019 11 85 4 53.5
Jan 2019 10 83 7 51.5
Dec 2018 13 77 10 51.5
Nov 2018 15 83 2 56.5

Inventories*

ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in February after a month of contraction, registering 51 percent, which is 2 percentage points higher than the 49 percent that was reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 30 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Support increase in volume” and “Carrying additional inventory to meet demand [due to] customer business increasing.”

The six industries reporting an increase in inventories in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Finance & Insurance. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories — listed in order — are: Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Mining; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade.

Inventories% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Feb 2019 20 62 18 51.0
Jan 2019 22 54 24 49.0
Dec 2018 20 63 17 51.5
Nov 2018 26 63 11 57.5

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for materials and services increased in February for the 21st consecutive month. ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index registered 54.4 percent, 5 percentage points lower than the 59.4 percent reported in January. Eighteen percent of respondents reported higher prices, 74 percent indicated no change in prices paid, and 8 percent of respondents reported lower prices.

Twelve non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of February, listed in the following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Public Administration; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three non-manufacturing industries reporting a decrease in prices paid during the month of February are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Mining.

Prices% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Feb 2019 18 74 8 54.4
Jan 2019 25 67 8 59.4
Dec 2018 18 74 8 58.0
Nov 2018 28 67 5 64.3
NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders

ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index grew in February. The index registered 55.5 percent, which is 3 percentage points higher than the 52.5 percent reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 38 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The nine industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in February — listed in order — are: Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Mining; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in February are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Backlog of Orders% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Feb 2019 24 63 13 55.5
Jan 2019 20 65 15 52.5
Dec 2018 20 61 19 50.5
Nov 2018 22 67 11 55.5

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based personnel grew for the 25th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 55 percent in February which is 4.5 percentage points higher than the 50.5 percent that was reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 64 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The five industries reporting an increase in new export orders in February are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; and Information. The two industries reporting a decrease in exports for the month of February are: Other Services; and Finance & Insurance. Eight industries reported no change in exports in February.

New Export Orders% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Feb 2019 17 76 7 55.0
Jan 2019 15 71 14 50.5
Dec 2018 22 75 3 59.5
Nov 2018 19 77 4 57.5

The Imports Index contracted in February. The reading of 48.5 percent is 3.5 percentage points lower than the 52 percent reported in January. Fifty-one percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The three industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of February are: Mining; Wholesale Trade; and Retail Trade. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports in the month of February are: Public Administration; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Ten industries reported no change in imports in February as compared to January.

Imports% Higher% Same% LowerIndex
Feb 2019 8 81 11 48.5
Jan 2019 12 80 8 52.0
Dec 2018 15 77 8 53.5
Nov 2018 16 77 7 54.5

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM® Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in February registered 59 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 60.5 percent that was reported in January. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high. In February, 24 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 6 percent of the respondents said their inventories were too low, and 70 percent said their inventories were about right.

The nine industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too high in February — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Information; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in February are: Transportation & Warehousing; and Accommodation & Food Services.

Inventory Sentiment

Inventory Sentiment% Too High% About Right% Too LowIndex
Feb 2019 24 70 6 59.0
Jan 2019 26 69 5 60.5
Dec 2018 22 74 4 59.0
Nov 2018 24 72 4 60.0

About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of February 2019.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI® (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

An NMI® above 48.6 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.6 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.6 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) (ISM ROB) contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including, but not limited to: tables, charts, data streams, time series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 W. Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, AZ 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@instituteforsupplymanagement.org.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management®

Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring the March 2019 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, April 3, 2019.

*Unless the NYSE is closed.



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